Mobility lies at the heart of modern civilization, influencing various facets of life. As we approach the future, significant transformations are on the horizon. Electrification, shared mobility, and the eventual rise of autonomous vehicles are reshaping automotive and freight markets globally.
Current Electric Vehicle Landscape:
- Almost 20 million passenger EVs are currently on the road, marking a substantial milestone in the transition towards electrified personal transport.
- Electrification extends beyond passenger vehicles, with over 1.3 million commercial EVs, including buses, delivery vans, and trucks.
- A staggering 280 million electric mopeds, scooters, motorcycles, and three-wheelers contribute to the diversified electric road transport ecosystem.
Challenges and Opportunities:
- The competition between batteries and hydrogen fuel cells intensifies, particularly in the realm of heavier vehicles.
- The window to achieve net-zero emissions is closing rapidly, necessitating strategic decisions from manufacturers.
- Disparities in EV adoption between wealthy and emerging economies highlight the need for equitable transitions to ensure broader access to benefits like improved air quality.Raw material constraints for batteries pose challenges, potentially impacting the timeline for achieving EV price parity in certain segments. However, this is not expected to derail the overall growth of the global EV market.
Looking Ahead and Key Focus Areas:
- Net Zero Scenario:
- A scenario envisioning a vehicle fleet capable of zero CO2 emissions based on an economic analysis of competing technologies.
- Country-level analysis included for the main passenger vehicle markets.
- Thematic Highlights:
- Five thematic highlights cover emerging topic areas, including EV adoption gaps, heavy-duty long-haul trucking, the value of vehicle-to-grid technology, reshaping mobility demand through modal shifts, and the dynamics of battery metals supply and demand.
- Updated Forecasts:
- Updated lithium-ion battery price, volume, and chemistry forecast reflecting market developments.
- Adapted battery pack size projections for China, considering the success of very small EVs in the region.
- Energy consumption updates to reflect real-world vehicle efficiencies, including charger inefficiencies, cold weather driving, and battery degradation.
- Metals Outlook:
- Updated near-term supply and demand balance for critical metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, crucial for scaling up EV production.
- Breakout Section on Three-Wheeled Vehicles:
- A dedicated section providing insights into the dynamics of three-wheeled vehicles, previously combined with two-wheeled vehicles.
- Economics and Bass-diffusion Models:
- Re-run of vehicle economics and Bass-diffusion models using the most recent EV sales data and vehicle pricing.
- Calibration based on the evolving EV market stages, with slightly higher outlooks for passenger EVs, electric trucks, and consistent results for buses and two-wheelers.
Finally, we have re-run our vehicle economics and Bass-diffusion models using the most recent EV sales data and vehicle pricing for all segments. The EV market is still in the early stages so each additional year of data helps calibrate results. Our passenger EV results are slightly higher than last year’s outlook, due mostly to faster adoption in China and Europe. The outlook is also higher for electric trucks, while buses and two-wheeler results are in a similar range to last
year.
