Evercore Analyst Chris McNally: Tesla’s Model 2 May Only Reach 500,000 Units in 2026


Evercore analysts have warned that Tesla’s next major growth phase, particularly related to the Model 2, may not fully ramp up until 2027. They expect Tesla to deliver around 2.7 million vehicles in 2026, which is below consensus estimates, and anticipate that the company’s earnings per share for that year will be 18% to 20% lower than expected. The analysts suggest that Tesla’s lower-cost Model 2 might only reach around 500,000 units in 2026, contrasting with the consensus projection of over 1 million units. This delay in the Model 2’s full ramp-up is leading Evercore to view Tesla as more of a ‘2027 story’ in terms of significant growth.

Evercore analyst Chris McNally has not rated Tesla a buy since initiating coverage in 2020, yet the stock price has risen 310% in that time.

Some investment firms, including Evercore, publish research reports with detailed analysis and ratings. These reports might offer deeper insights into Evercore’s reasoning behind their stance on Tesla. However, some reports may require a subscription to access.

While there isn’t a definitive “new” rating, the recent news suggests Evercore remains cautious about Tesla in the near term due to production delays.

Other analysts have varying views on Tesla compared to Evercore analyst Chris McNally. While McNally maintains a cautious stance on Tesla, with a hold recommendation and skepticism about the company’s growth potential, other analysts have different perspectives. For instance, according to TipRanks data, 10 analysts gave Tesla a “buy” rating, 18 gave a “hold” rating, and 7 gave a “sell” rating. This indicates a more mixed sentiment among analysts, with some being more optimistic about Tesla’s future performance and potential for growth compared to McNally’s cautious outlook

Tesla CEO Elon Musk acknowledges the company is between growth waves, with the first driven by Model 3 and Model Y, and the second expected from the cheaper next-generation vehicle.