Tesla’s Global Dominance Faces BYD Challenge: A Deep Dive into 2023 Achievements and 2024 Projections

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Auto Sales USA : Q4 2023
Auto Sales USA : Q4 2023


Tesla closed the year 2023 as the world’s largest all-electric car manufacturer, which might not be the case in 2024 due to BYD’s surge. The company’s potential annual manufacturing output is estimated at over 2,350,000 units, according to the Q4 financial report (no change compared to its Q3 report). Get Fully Charged Tesla EV production In 2023, Tesla produced more than 1.84 million all-electric cars (up 35% year-over-year). This year, the volume might exceed 2 million for the very first time. According to Tesla, after the scheduled global factory shutdown in Q3, global production reached a record annualized run rate of nearly 2.0 million vehicles in Q4. In other words, there is a big chance that in 2024 Tesla will produce more than two million electric cars, compared to 1,845,985 in 2023. In this post, we will walk through Tesla’s EV manufacturing plants to see what’s going on at each of the sites. Tesla’s Fremont factory has the potential to produce up to 550,000 Model 3/Model Y a year, and up to 100,000 Model S/Model X. There is no change here compared to the previous quarter. According to Tesla, in 2023 the factory produced a record number of nearly 560,000 electric cars. Tesla states: “Before Tesla purchased the Fremont factory, the record output of the previous owner was nearly 430,000 vehicles made in a single year. In 2023, the Tesla Fremont factory produced nearly 560,000 vehicles thanks to our ~20,000 Fremont-based employees.” Tesla Fremont Factory produced nearly 560,000 vehicles in 2023, an all-time record Tesla Factory in Fremont, California Tesla Fremont Factory: Model S & X general assembly Tesla’s first gigafactory was its lithium-ion battery cell plant, which makes 2170-type cylindrical battery cells in partnership with Panasonic, as well as other products (drive units, power electronics, energy storage systems, and parts). Production of 2170-type batteries is expected to increase by about 10 percent. The plant will be significantly expanded by way of a $3.6 billion investment to handle production of the 4680-type cells (100 GWh per year with a potential for more) and Tesla Semi electric trucks (potentially roughly 50,000 Tesla Semi per year). The Tesla Semi’s status is “Pilot production” (no change here), described also as limited production by Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk. Tesla Giga Nevada (Tesla Gigafactory 1) Tesla Giga Nevada: Expansion Plans (Tesla Q4 2022 report) The Tesla Giga Shanghai plant has the potential to produce over 950,000 Model 3/Model Y per year. The plant remains the company’s export hub and accounts for about half of the total manufacturing capacity. Tesla noted: “Shanghai resumed normal rate production in Q4, rebounding from the scheduled downtime in Q3. Production of the updated Model 3 ramped to full speed in less than two months.” Tesla Giga Shanghai (Tesla Gigafactory 3) Tesla Giga Shanghai: Body Shop (Tesla Q4 2022 report) Tesla Giga Berlin in Grünheide near Berlin, Germany has produced the Tesla Model Y (powered by 2170-type cylindrical battery cells) since March 2022. In March, the company announced that the production rate reached 5,000 Tesla Model Y units per week. The capacity is estimated at 375,000 annually (no change). Tesla noted: “Model Y production in Berlin continued to grow in Q4, achieving both a record weekly production rate and a sequential increase in total production volume for the seventh consecutive quarter.” At some point in the future, the company is expected to start production of a new version powered by 4680-type cylindrical battery cells. Tesla Giga Berlin (Tesla Gigafactory 4) Tesla Giga Berlin: Tesla Model Y paint shop (Tesla Q4 2022 report) Tesla Giga Texas in Austin started production of the Tesla Model Y in April 2022. The site produces two versions of the car—one equipped with 4680-type cylindrical cells and a structural battery pack and the “legacy” version with 2170-type batteries and non-structural batteries (similar to the Fremont plant). According to the company, in May 2023, the plant achieved a production rate of 5,000 Model Y (all versions) per week. Interestingly, in September, the 4680-type version of the Model Y was removed from the online configurator. Since Q4 2023, the factory has also produced Tesla Cybertruck pickups, powered by the 4680-type battery cells: “At Gigafactory Texas, we began production of the Cybertruck and delivered the first units to customers. We expect the ramp of Cybertruck to be longer than other models given its manufacturing complexity.” The estimated installed annual vehicle capacity is over 125,000. By the way, in October 2023, 4680-type battery production at the plant reached a cumulative level of 20 million units. We estimated that it might be about 1.8 GWh in total. According to Tesla CEO Elon Musk, the Cybertruck output is not limited by the 4680-type cell availability. The 4680-type battery production is “ahead of the ramp, with weeks of finished cells inventory.”  An additional four battery production lines will be ready later this year.     Tesla noted also that the next-generation vehicle will be produced at the Gigafactory Texas (from the second half of 2025): “In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next-generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas.” Tesla Giga Texas (Tesla Gigafactory 5) Tesla Giga Texas: 4680 cell production (Tesla Q1 2023 report) In March 2023, Tesla announced that its sixth gigafactory plant will be built in Santa Catarina municipality near Monterrey (Nuevo Leon), Mexico. The plant will be used for next-generation electric vehicles—potentially a mass market, affordable electric car with annual production counted in the millions per year. Initially, we heard that vehicle production might potentially start in 2025, but a recent report suggests that it might be later. Construction is expected to start in 2024. The first production site for the model will be Texas (in the second half of 2025), so Mexico might follow in 2026.   Production sites (vehicles/battery systems) Tesla’s total installed manufacturing capacity is more than 2,350,000 per year (up to 650,000 at the Tesla Factory, over 950,000 at the Giga Shanghai, 375,000 at Giga Berlin, and over 375,000 Giga Texas). Tesla Factory in Fremont, California Model S/X (capacity of up to 100,000 annually)Model S since mid-2012, Model X since late 2015 Model 3/Y (capacity of up to 550,000 annually now)Model 3 since mid-2017, Model Y since January 2020 Total output of up to 650,000 S/X/3/Y Tesla Gigafactory 1 in Nevada related to lithium-ion cell, module and pack production, energy storage products and drive units/power electronics nearby, there is also a Tesla Semi pilot facility Semi status: “Pilot production” (undisclosed capacity, pilot production since Q4 2022) 4680-type cylindrical battery cell to be produced in the future (100 GWh/year) Tesla Gigafactory 2 in New York Related to solar, some energy storage products and charging equipment Tesla Gigafactory 3 in Shanghai, China Model 3/Y (capacity of over 950,000 annually)Model 3 since late 2019, Model Y since December 2020 Tesla Gigafactory 4 in Berlin-Brandenburg, Germany, Europe Model Y (capacity of over 375,000 annually)Model Y since March 2022 Tesla Gigafactory 5 in Austin, Texas Model Y (capacity of over 250,000 annually)Model Y since April 2022 Cybertruck (capacity of over 125,000 annually)Cybertruck since Q4 2023 Next Generation Platform EV – from H2 2025 4680-type cylindrical battery cells (undisclosed rate) Tesla Gigafactory 6 in Santa Catarina municipality near Monterrey (Nuevo Leon), Mexico Announced on March 1, 2023 Next Generation Platform EV Tesla Kato Road pilot facility in Fremont, California related to Tesla’s 4680-type cylindrical battery cellstarget: 10 GWh/year cell production Tesla Megapack factory in Lathrop, California Tesla Megapack factory in Shanghai, China Unassigned models “Next Gen Platform”: “in development”, to be produced in “various” locations including Texas Roadster: “in development”, unassignedpotentially will be assigned to the Fremont Factory.

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